Poker players are all about making cash. But making money playing poker is no easy feat. It takes tremendous skill, perseverance and a good dollop of Lady Luck. The strange thing about making money playing poker is that playing properly doesn’t always guarantee big winnings. The best advice is to take a multi-pronged approach to playing the game. At least this way, players get to enjoy long-term success in the game. And the strategic approach is heavily influenced by the concept of an Expected Value (EV).

Players should always lean towards decisions that can be classified as +EV (positive Expected Values) as opposed to decisions classified as –EV (negative Expected Values). The concept of EV is best defined as the expected value of a random variable is the sum of the probability of each potential outcome of the experiment multiplied by its concomitant payoff. Simply put, this is the amount that one expects to yield when identical odds are repeated over and over again.  So when you punt, this +EV is what you would typically expect.

A Classic Example of Expected Value

Poker players make use of the concept of Expected Value time and again. As an example of EV in action, a standard coin toss has an even or neutral EV. But a weighted coin toss has an unexpected EV outcome. A coin toss where the payoff on heads is +£10 and -£5 on tails would yield wins 50% of the time, but the EV is £2.50. So it would be worth making this bet because the probability of the outcome of winning £10 comes good 50% of the time and that is favorable than losing £5, 50% of the time.

In Poker Expected Values  Works in Much the Same Way

The notion of EV works well in poker because there are a set number of cards in play – 52. And with certain knowns and multiple unknowns, EV can be calculated.  Poker players simply calculate the number of cards required to hit a winning hand and the odds of not hitting the winning hand. The pot value should be known and the buy-in to win that pot should be known. If the value of placing the bet is worth the expected payoff, then the bet should be placed. Remember that it’s a long-term betting option and +EV bets are the dealmakers!